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Are Home Prices Going Up or Down? That Depends…




Media coverage about what’s happening with home prices can be confusing. A large part of that is due to the type of data being used and what they’re choosing to draw attention to. For home prices, there are two different methods used to compare home prices over different time periods: year-over-year (Y-O-Y) and month-over-month (M-O-M). Here's an explanation of each. 

Year-over-Year (Y-O-Y):
  • This comparison measures the change in home prices from the same month or quarter in the previous year. For example, if you're comparing Y-O-Y home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for April 2022.
  • Y-O-Y comparisons focus on changes over a one-year period, providing a more comprehensive view of long-term trends. They are usually useful for evaluating annual growth rates and determining if the market is generally appreciating or depreciating.
Month-over-Month (M-O-M):
  • This comparison measures the change in home prices from one month to the next. For instance, if you're comparing M-O-M home prices for April 2023, you would compare them to the home prices for March 2023.
  • Meanwhile, M-O-M comparisons analyze changes within a single month, giving a more immediate snapshot of short-term movements and price fluctuations. They are often used to track immediate shifts in demand and supply, seasonal trends, or the impact of specific events on the housing market.

The key difference between Y-O-Y and M-O-M comparisons lies in the time frame being assessed. Both approaches have their own merits and serve different purposes depending on the specific analysis required.

Why Is This Distinction So Important Right Now? 

We’re about to enter a few months when home prices could possibly be lower than they were the same month last year. April, May, and June of 2022 were three of the best months for home prices in the history of the American housing market. Those same months this year might not measure up. That means, the Y-O-Y comparison will probably show values are depreciating. The numbers for April seem to suggest that’s what we’ll see in the months ahead (see graph below):

That’ll generate troubling headlines that say home values are falling. That’ll be accurate on a Y-O-Y basis. And, those headlines will lead many consumers to believe that home values are currently cascading downward.

However, on a closer look at M-O-M home prices, we can see prices have actually been appreciating for the last several months. Those M-O-M numbers more accurately reflect what’s truly happening with home values: after several months of depreciation, it appears we’ve hit bottom and are bouncing back.

Here’s an example of M-O-M home price movements for the last 16 months from the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report (see graph below):

Why Does This Matter to You?

So, if you’re hearing negative headlines about home prices, remember they may not be painting the full picture. For the next few months, we’ll be comparing prices to last year’s record peak, and that may make the Y-O-Y comparison feel more negative. But, if we look at the more immediate, M-O-M trends, we can see home prices are actually on the way back up.

There’s an advantage to buying a home now. You’ll buy at a discount from last year’s price and before prices start to pick up even more momentum. It’s called “buying at the bottom,” and that’s a good thing.

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices, or if you’re ready to buy before prices climb higher, let’s connect.

 
 

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What my clients are saying  

My experience while purchasing my first home was the best experience I've ever experienced. With Lisa's guidance it was a stress free experience. She made sure I was comfortable and understood every step. She gave her opinion from the heart. You can tell she genuinely wanted you to have the home you desired. She is very personable and that's great when you are purchasing a large investment. I am forever grateful of her help. So if you are looking to have a wonderful experience while purchasing or selling any property Lisa Kelly Realtor is the way to go.

 

~ Candace Engram

Candace Engram ????? 18 weeks ago My experience while purchasing my first home was the best experience I've ever experienced. With Lisa's guidance it was a stress free experience. She made sure I was comfortable and understood every step. She gave her opinion from the heart. You can tell she genuinely wanted you to have the home you desired. She is very personable and that's great when you are purchasing a large investment. I am forever grateful of her help. So if you are looking to have a wonderful experience while purchasing or selling any property Lisa Kelly Realtor is the way to go.

 

~ Candace Engram

Greg Raymond ????? 43 weeks ago Finding and buying the right house can be a difficult and daunting process. When my wife and I found our home online, we needed someone local to the property to assist us as we were out of state. Lisa came recommended by a local acquaintance and she was quick to respond to our call. She was collaborative and professional throughout the process, and was attentive to our needs and questions through closing. I would certainly recommend her!

 

~ Greg Raymond

I had such a positive experience working with Lisa. Not only is she a complete professional, but such a compassionate human being. Her knowledge guiding me through the Florida real estate process was so helpful as a first-time Florida homebuyer. She was always prompt and responsive while going above and beyond. She attended all key inspections in person and kept me informed throughout the entire process. If you are looking for a great real estate experience, look no further. Lisa is your gal to get the job done. I will definitely be working with her again in the future.

 

~ DJ Bradley

I had such a positive experience working with Lisa. Not only is she a complete professional, but such a compassionate human being. Her knowledge guiding me through the Florida real estate process was so helpful as a first-time Florida homebuyer. She was always prompt and responsive while going above and beyond. She attended all key inspections in person and kept me informed throughout the entire process. If you are looking for a great real estate experience, look no further. Lisa is your gal to get the job done. I will definitely be working with her again in the future.

 

~ DJ Bradley

We can’t say enough good things about Lisa Kelly! From the moment she stepped through our front door, she demonstrated all the characteristics you want in your realtor: integrity, friendliness, optimism, thorough knowledge of her field, state-of-the-art technical savvy, unflagging energy and sensitivity to all our own needs and feelings. Our house sold in four days and we are certain this success was largely due to Lisa’s skill and hard work. We highly recommend Lisa Kelly to anyone looking for a top notch realtor!

 

~ Tom and Kim Manske

We can’t say enough good things about Lisa Kelly! From the moment she stepped through our front door, she demonstrated all the characteristics you want in your realtor: integrity, friendliness, optimism, thorough knowledge of her field, state-of-the-art technical savvy, unflagging energy and sensitivity to all our own needs and feelings. Our house sold in four days and we are certain this success was largely due to Lisa’s skill and hard work. We highly recommend Lisa Kelly to anyone looking for a top notch realtor!

 

~ Kim Manske

Kim Manske ?????Aug 21, 2020 We can’t say enough good things about Lisa Kelly! From the moment she stepped through our front door, she demonstrated all the characteristics you want in your realtor: integrity, friendliness, optimism, thorough knowledge of her field, state-of-the-art technical savvy, unflagging energy and sensitivity to all our own needs and feelings. Our house sold in four days and we are certain this success was largely due to Lisa’s skill and hard work. We highly recommend Lisa Kelly to anyone looking for a top notch realtor!

 

~ Joanna Grizzard

Sidney Wyland Lisa Kelly was our realtor that helped us with our move from Utah to Lakeland. She is a very good resource for us in Lakeland and helped us buy our new home. We found Lisa on the internet. She has helped us with all the contacts and scheduling to insure all things here went smoothly. The closing on our home was completed on time which was very important as we had are household goods being delivered from two different states. She also continues to be there for us for any referrals or help we may need here locally. I would highly recommend her to anyone buying a home.

 

~ Rick and Sidney Wyland

Just wanted to thank Lisa for a job well done. I worked with Lisa on 2 of our homes this past year. We sold one in June and another late in the year. Everything went smooth and all details were handled in a very professional manor. Thanks again Lisa; nice working with you. Lee Brown

 

~ Lee and Frankie Brown

We had been looking for a new home for about three months. We changed Realtors and began working with Lisa. She showed us a couple of places. We talked about limits on price and location. We looked again on a couple. We did not care for those. She emailed us about a home that was being restored for a flip. We met her at our current home. We liked the location and made an offer which was accepted. She did a great job getting the seller to accept and a wonderful job from there. The closing took about fifteen minutes. We have been very happy from that day on. Patricia and Bill Crabb

 

~ Bill and Patricia Crabb

We had been looking for a new home for about three months. We changed Realtors and began working with Lisa. She showed us a couple of places. We talked about limits on price and location. We looked again on a couple. We did not care for those. She emailed us about a home that was being restored for a flip. We met her at our current home. We liked the location and made an offer which was accepted. She did a great job getting the seller to accept and a wonderful job from there. The closing took about fifteen minutes. We have been very happy from that day on. Patricia and Bill Crabb

 

~ Bill & Patricia Crabb

Just wanted to thank Lisa for a job well done. I worked with Lisa on 2 of our homes this past year. We sold one in June and another late in the year. Everything went smooth and all details were handled in a very professional manor. Thanks again Lisa; nice working with you. Lee Brown

 

~ Lee & Frankie Brown

01/03/2017 - shunter317 Bought a Single Family home in 2016 for approximately $175K in Lakeland, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: Lisa is an exceptional agent as she knows real estate law and the local market. She communicates and is extremely responsive to her clients questions and needs. She walked us through a complicated contract. We consider Lisa a new friend.

 

~ What Others Had to say

Highly likely to recommend 08/09/2016 - HappyBuyerNEOH Bought a Single Family home in 2016 for approximately $225K in Lakeland, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: I highly recommend Lisa Kelly! She was awesome to work with through the whole process. Her communication and promptness went above and beyond my expectations. Working in the mortgage industry, I see all types of realtors, if you want a genuine, awesome, go getter- she is your girl!

 

~ What Others had to say

Highly likely to recommend 10/27/2014 - jessbparker Bought a Single Family home in 2014 for approximately $75K in Auburndale, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: I cannot say enough about Lisa Kelly. She helped my husband and I buy our first home when we had limited funds and difficult circumstances. She is extremely knowledgeable about homes, market, taxes- anything you could want to know. She is also an excellent advocate for her clients during negotiations, which really came in handy when you're a nervous first-time home buyer.Less

 

~ What others had to say

Highly likely to recommend 02/22/2014 - par167 Bought a home in 2014. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: Lisa Kelly is the hardest working woman I know! If you are in the market to buy or sell take it from my personal experience she delivers results!In Polk County or anywhere else for that matter you will be hard pressed to ever get better service. Paul Renner.....

 

~ What others had to say

Highly likely to recommend 02/25/2012 - user027478 Bought and sold a Single Family home in 2011 for approximately $275K in Lakeland, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: Lisa is the most professional realtor I've ever worked with... she's direct, honest, highly-knowledgable, very responsive and a consummate professional. She played fundamentally important roles in helping us to sell our house in a tough market. She's a hard worker and also gave us great advice and we were able to sell after listing for about 30 days. She then helped us find and close on our dream home. Her persistance and negotiating savvy helped us buy a house that was not a very convential listing. If we'd had an average realtor, we'd have been a lot less successful with both our deals. I'd recommend Lisa to anyone who wants to work with a genuine professional. She could write a book on what it takes to be an outstanding service provider.

 

~ What others had to say

02/09/2012 - Alyson7707 Bought a Single Family home in 2009 for approximately $125K in Bartow, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: We absolutely loved our experience with Lisa.. She is incredibly knowledgeable and dedicated to finding the home of your dreams. We couldn't be happier with the home she found us or the time we spent with her--she made the experience exciting and easy. We do not hesitate to recommend her to friends and family and will absolutely work with her in the future. Thanks again Lisa! -Michael & Alyson Elrod

 

~ what others had to say

Highly likely to recommend 02/08/2012 - AimeeWeed Bought a Single Family home in 2010 for approximately $100K in Auburndale, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: Lisa was always quick to respond to my questions. I honestly think that my family and I would not be in this wonderful house without her hard work. She is honest, not afraid to give her opinion in a helpful way, and she is very knowledgeable in all aspects of her job.

 

~ what others had to say

Wonderful wonderful experience. Lisa is what I call a dream maker. I had the dream, and she made it a reality.Lisa's hard work, her quick response, her compassion in knowing I was a single mom purchasing my first house, has earned my loyalty in using her as my realtor for life.

 

~ what others had to say

Highly likely to recommend 03/09/2011 - reedswife11 Bought and sold a Single Family home in 2011 for approximately $75K in Lakeland, FL. Local knowledge: Process expertise: Responsiveness: Negotiation skills: This woman is amazing, we have run into every road block imaginable and she has negotiated our problems quickly and effectivly everytime. Always available and Always puts her clients first

 

~ what others had to say

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